Players: Offensive Ratings
All players should have a full set
of ratings in the Offense group, since all players (including pitchers in
non-DH leagues) may be called on to bat and run the bases.
Sacrifice
bunt rating
The Sacrifice bunt rating
indicates the player's ability to advance a runner with a sacrifice or squeeze
bunt.
In real-life games, bunt singles are
quite rare in sacrifice and squeeze situations (about 10% of the time), but the
runners advance over 80% of the time when the batter gets the ball in play. But
a significant percentage of bunt attempts are fouled off, putting the batter
behind in the count and significantly reducing his effectiveness. The ability
to get the ball in play is often the thing that separates the best bunters from
the worst.
When we assign bunt ratings for
modern seasons, we study pitch-by-pitch and play-by-play data from every
real-life game to determine which bunters have more success getting the ball in
play and advancing the runners.
The ratings range from Excellent to
Poor. The better the rating, the fewer the number of foul bunts, and the higher
the success rate when he does get the ball in play.
Bunting
for a hit
Most of what we just said about
sacrifice bunts applies to bunting for a hit, except that this rating applies
only when the batter attempts to bunt with the bases empty or with two out.
In real-life games, bunt singles are
fairly common in these situations. The best bunters are successful over 40% of
the time. But because the hitter often tries to get a running start on these
bunt attempts, two-thirds of them are fouled off, putting the batter behind in
the count and significantly reducing his effectiveness. As with sacrifice and
squeeze bunts, the ability to get the ball in play is often the thing that
separates the best bunters from the worst.
The ratings range from Excellent to
Poor. The better the rating, the fewer the number of foul bunts, and the higher
the success rate when he does get the ball in play.
Running
rating
The running rating measures the
player's ability to take extra bases on singles, doubles, and caught fly balls.
It measures both running speed and the player's judgment about when to take the
extra base. Some slow runners have good ratings because they know when to try
for the extra base. Some fast runners have low ratings because they don't read
the ball off the bat very well or because they're too aggressive and get thrown
out frequently.
When we assign running ratings for
modern players, we use detailed information about the number of extra bases a
runner takes on singles, doubles and fly balls, and the number of times each
runner is thrown out on the bases.
If you do not have this information,
you can assess a player's running ability based on statistics and other factors
-- triples, stolen bases, defensive position, batting
order position -- that suggest speed or lack of it. This method isn't foolproof
-- our studies always uncover fast players who don't seem to succeed on the
bases -- but it's a good method when you don't have play-by-play data to work
with.
The running ratings range from
Excellent to Poor. We rarely assign a running rating better than Average for
pitchers and catchers, but there are exceptions from time to time.
Jump
and steal ratings
The jump and steal ratings work
together to indicate how well this player can steal bases. The jump rating
measures his ability to read the pitcher and get a good jump on a steal
attempt. The steal rating measures how successful he is on those attempts.
When we assign jump and steal
ratings, we look at the player's stolen base and caught stealing totals, but we
also examine the play-by-play data to see whether these statistics are telling
the whole story. Some players pick up a few bonus steals as a trailing runner
on double steals that were really earned by the lead runner. Others are very
selective, trying to steal only against the weakest catchers and pitchers. So
we don't rely on a strict formula when developing these ratings. However,
because most people don't have access to this type of information, we've put
together some guidelines to use when creating your own players.
One way to calculate the jump rating
is to divide the number of steal attempts by the number of times the player
reached first base (singles + walks + hit by pitch), using the following table:
|
Rating |
Rate |
|
Ex |
at
least 25% |
|
Vg |
at
least 15% |
|
Av |
at
least 9% |
|
Fr |
at
least 3.5% |
|
Pr |
less
than 3.5% |
Excellent stealing ratings are
reserved for players who succeed at least 83% of the time. Average stealers are
successful about 67% of the time. Poor stealers are thrown out more than half
the time.
Hitter
type
This rating indicates whether the
batter is a pull hitter or spray hitter. A right-handed batter is considered a
pull hitter if he hit the ball to the left fielder, third baseman or shortstop
at least 50% of the time in real life. The same rule is applied to left-handed
batters, but the right fielder, first baseman and second baseman are used
instead.
Clutch
rating
This rating indicates whether the
batter is especially tough in late-inning situations where the score is close.
A great clutch hitter is rated as a Terror, while others are Normal.
Baseball researchers have tried on a
number of occasions to find players who consistently perform better in the
clutch, but they have had no success. No matter how you define a clutch
situation, hitters tend to hit just as well (or badly) in those situations as
they do overall, given a statistically meaningful number of plate appearances.
As a result, the clutch rating
system is only a minor factor in your DMB games, and we don't give out a lot of
Terror ratings. When we do, we assign them to players who hit very well (and
better than their normal level) in the late innings of close games in that
particular season.
Power
rating
This rating doesn't appear on the
ratings form, but we'll mention it because it's on the player profile
and in other places in the game. It indicates how well a player hits for power
(doubles, triples and homers) against left- and right-handed pitching, and it
is automatically calculated by DMB whenever you create a player or modify a
player's event table.
This rating, which has values
ranging from Excellent to Poor, does not determine the outcome of any plays.
Its purpose is to give you a quick indicator of how much power is represented
in the player's event table, and is therefore a useful companion to the
player's batting average.
Statistically, the rating represents
a batter's rate of extra-base hits after adjusting for park.
Players: Defensive Ratings
Players should be assigned defensive
ratings only for the positions they normally play. All positions have a range
rating that reflects the player's ability to reach batted balls and turn them
into outs and an error rating that reflects his tendency to make errors.
Throwing ratings are assigned to catchers and outfielders. Catchers also have
passed ball ratings.
Range
rating
This rating indicates a player's
ability to reach balls hit in his direction and turn those batted balls into
outs. Most baseball announcers use the "range" to mean the ability to
cover ground, and that's certainly an important part of what goes into our
range ratings. But it's not the whole story.
Our range rating (which takes values
from Excellent to Poor) measures each fielder's overall playmaking ability
(minus his tendency to commit errors, as we have a separate rating for that).
Playmaking ability is not just about range, it's also about positioning,
handling the ball cleanly, throwing quickly and accurately, and making good
decisions about where and when to throw the ball.
For modern seasons, we carry out
very extensive studies of play-by-play data when assigning our range ratings.
We look at each player's individual performance on the balls hit his way,
overall team defense, the effects of neighboring fielders (3B often take balls
that the SS could have handled anyway, so we don't punish the SS for failing to
make those plays), and ballpark effects.
Unfortunately, good fielding data
can be hard to get for past seasons. The best sources we've found are the team
section of the Macmillan Baseball Encyclopedia and the STATS All-time Major
League Handbook.
By comparing putouts (for
outfielders) and assists (for infielders), and adjusting for playing time, you can get an idea
how a player compares with his peers. These types of measures (commonly known
as range factors) can sometimes be very misleading, however, as they don't take
into account the groundball/flyball nature or
left/right mix of the pitching staff. The more of these factors you can take
into account when assigning range ratings, the more accurate your ratings will
be.
Error
rates
This rating is a percentage
indicating how this player's error rate compares to the average fielder at his
position in the era in which he played. A rating of 100 means the player is
average -- that is, he makes 100% of the errors expected of someone at that
position. A player who makes only 50% as many errors as his peers is rated 50.
Someone who makes twice as many errors as his peers is rated 200.
Outfielder
throwing
The strength and accuracy of an
outfielder's throwing arm are indicated in this rating, which is used whenever
a runner tries to take an extra base on a single, double or fly ball. These
ratings take values from Excellent to Poor.
When we assign throwing ratings for
modern outfielders, we use detailed information about the number of extra bases
opposing runners took on singles, doubles and fly balls hit to that outfielder.
We also look at the number of runners thrown out, but outfielder assists can be
misleading. Some outfielders pick up meaningless assists on plays where one or
two runners score on a weak throw to the plate, and the batter is retired when
the throw is cut off.
Catcher
throwing
This rating indicates the strength
and accuracy of the catcher's throwing arm and is used whenever a runner tries
to steal second or third. It has values from Excellent to Poor.
When we assign catcher throwing ratings
for modern seasons, we use detailed studies of play-by-play data to see how
often opposing runners challenged each catchers arm and what percentage of
those runners were thrown out. Our studies take into account any SB that were
credited to trailing runners on double steals and how often a runner was caught
stealing as a result of a pickoff throw by a pitcher. Most importantly, we look
at the performance of each pitcher-catcher pair, an approach that helps us
determine whether it's the pitcher or catcher who deserves the credit or blame
for the results.
Passed
ball rating
This number indicates how many times
a catcher will allow a passed ball in 1,000 plate appearances with runners
on base. The formula is similar to that for wild pitch ratings for
pitchers:
rating
= (passed balls * 1000) / (batters caught * .43)
Official statistics don't include
batters caught, so you'll need to estimate it. For example, if a team's pitchers
faced 6300 batters and this catcher was behind the plate 72% of time, he caught
about 6300 * .72 = 4536 batters.
The .43 factor indicates that about
43% of all plate appearances occur with runners on base. This number rises and
falls with the level of offense in the league.
All pitchers should have a full set of ratings in the Pitching group, but
you can leave these ratings alone for non-pitchers. If you use a non-pitcher as
a pitcher, DMB assigns a set of default ratings to cover those situations.
These ratings (which take values from Excellent to Poor) are used to
determine how quickly a pitcher gets tired.
A player who was not used as a starter in real life does not have a rating.
If he is used as a starter in DMB, he tires more quickly than a player with a
Poor rating.
A player who was not used as a reliever in real life does not have a relief
rating. If he is used in relief, he will have above-average durability in that
role, since his arm is accustomed to long outings.
There are three ways to determine how durable a pitcher was. The best way,
which can only be used for recent seasons, is to look at the average number of
pitches thrown per appearance. These days, only the most
durable and effective starting pitchers throw an average of 110 pitches or
more. Most are in the 90s.
We consider all three of these pieces of information (when we have them all)
when assigning durability ratings to starting pitchers. But keep in mind that
there are some other factors that you may also want to consider:
·
bad pitchers don't last
long, but it's not necessarily because they tire out. For a pitcher like this,
you may want to assign a better durability rating than would normally be
assigned based on batters faced per game. On those rare occasions when he's pitching
well, this pitcher might indeed be able to go deep into the late innings or
even throw a complete game.
·
it follows from the
previous point that starter durability rating is most important for good
pitchers. It doesn't matter much if a bad pitcher is allowed to stay in your
games too long, but if a pitcher was very effective but didn't consistently
pitch into the late innings, his starter durability
rating is the only thing that will stop him from completing too many games.
·
a pitcher on a bad team may also be more durable
than his batters faced numbers indicate if he's frequently removed from games
for a pinch hitter
·
today's pitchers throw
an average of 3.8 pitches per batter. Historical data of this type is not
available, but we estimate that pitches per batter have risen over the past 100
years from the a low of 3.0-3-2 to today's much higher
levels.
·
the values in the above
table are averages, not maximums. In any given game, a pitcher can usually face
5-6 more batters than these tables indicate without getting tired. The values
in the table reflect an average of the pitcher's short outings (the ones where
he got pounded and he left the game before he could get tired) and his longer
ones.
In DMB, as in real life, there is no magic indicator to tell you when a
pitcher is tired. You must make a judgment call based on his performance in the
current game and from his durability rating.
The following tables may help you decide when to remove a pitcher. Keep in mind
that these tables are based on how pitchers are used today, so you'll need to
make adjustments if you're playing older seasons. And remember that fatigue
sets in gradually, so you may occasionally get away with pushing a pitcher
beyond the normal limits.
For starting pitchers (pitch counts):
|
Rating |
One game |
Five days |
|
Ex |
115-125 |
195-215 |
|
Vg |
105-115 |
175-195 |
|
Av |
95-105 |
165-185 |
|
Fr |
90-100 |
155-175 |
|
Pr |
85-95 |
145-165 |
For relief pitchers (pitch counts):
|
Rating |
One game |
Five days |
|
Ex |
60-70 |
80-95 |
|
Vg |
45-55 |
60-75 |
|
Av |
35-45 |
45-60 |
|
Fr |
30-40 |
40-55 |
|
Pr |
20-30 |
30-45 |
This rating indicates a pitcher's ability to hold runners close on steal attempts.
An Excellent rating indicates a pitcher against whom opposing runners attempt
to steal with the next base open less than 5% of the time. Poor pitchers allow
attempts almost 30% of the time.
When we assign hold ratings for modern seasons, we use detailed studies of
play-by-play data to see how often opposing runners challenged each pitcher and
what percentage of those runners were thrown out. Our studies take pickoffs
into account, along with any steals that were credited to trailing runners on double
steals. Most importantly, we look at the performance of each pitcher-catcher
pair, an approach that helps us determine whether it's the pitcher or catcher
who deserves the credit or blame for the results.
Unfortunately, there is very little information available for past seasons.
It's only in recent years that stolen bases against pitchers and catchers were
routinely published.
This rating indicates whether the pitcher is especially tough in late-inning
situations with the score very close. Pitchers are rated as Super, Tough or
Normal.
Baseball researchers have tried on a number of occasions to find batters who
consistently perform better in the clutch, but they have had no success. We're
not aware of any such studies for pitchers, but the small amount of research
we've done on this question has also failed to turn up any evidence to suggest
that pitchers can bear down when they need to.
As a result, the clutch rating system is only a minor factor in your DMB games.
We don't give out a lot of Tough ratings and it's possible that we may have
never given out a Super rating.
This number indicates how often a pitcher throws a wild pitch when there are
runners on base. The wild pitch rating tends to range from 0 to 60 with an
average of 15. Use the formula:
rating = (wild pitches * 1000) / (batters
faced * .43)
For example, if a pitcher threw four wild pitches in a season in which he
faced 1000 batters, his rating is 9. Why .43? Because about 43% percentage of
batters faced occur with runners on base, though this number rises and falls
over time and will vary for individual pitchers.
This number indicates how frequently a pitcher commits a balk. It is
expressed as a percentage, with 100 indicating a pitcher who's at the average
rate for his league. For example, if a pitcher faced 952 batters and balked
once in a league where balks occurred at a rate of 8 per 10,000 batters faced,
his balk rating would be:
player: 1 / 952 = .0011
league: 8 / 10000 = .0008
rating: 100 * .0011 / .0008 = 138
This rating is NOT used to determine the result of
any play, so you do not need to fill it in for new players. If you do fill it
in, use a value of 50.
GB pct is similar to a batter's power rating in
that it is not directly used by the game but acts as a window into the event
table for modern season disks.
For modern season disks, DMB uses ground ball percentage when
creating pitching event tables internally. In these cases, the number
accurately reflects the pitcher's ability to cause ground balls. Together with
the number of ground ball double plays made while this pitcher was in the game,
you can use this rating to assess your chances of getting out of a tough
situation with a ground ball double play.